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Definitions

Heuristics Definition 

Heuristics Definition = are a means of discovering or finding out something. They are mental tricks of the trade or rules of thumb that are used, almost unconsciously, to simplify the process of decision making. They are cognitive devices that limit the need to search for, and evaluate, further options. The terms also carries with it the idea of discovering things by trial and error rather than by systematic analysis of all appropriate information.
Bayes theorem = includes both prior and current information when calculating a probability. Heuristics Definition thinking
The idea of heuristic thinking can be illustrated by contrasting it with a rational approach to making a non-ethical decision such as choosing a car to buy. If this decision were to be approached from an analytical and rational position you would have to go through the following stages
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-Identify all cars available on the market
-Identify all factors that are important (cost, reliability, acceleration, color etc.)
-Decide on relative importance to you of the above criteria by either putting them into rank order or assigning weights to them
-Research each car on market and decide how they score -Calculate the degree to which car would satisfy your whishes. -Choose the car that scores highest in these calculations.
This process is the subjective expected utility. (makes a personal (subjective) assessment of what is important (utility) and chances (expected) that would actually provide that value). This is a time-consuming process, and a heuristic approach would simplify it.
-Availability heuristic